Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia Mendoza win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 28.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia Mendoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.