Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 58.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.21% and a win for Gimnasia Mendoza had a probability of 15.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.38%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.47%) , while for a Gimnasia Mendoza win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.