Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 35.56%. A win for Gimnasia Mendoza had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 30.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.69%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Gimnasia Mendoza win was 1-0 (12.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood.