Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.16%. A draw had a probability of 31.19% and a win for Gimnasia Mendoza had a probability of 28.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.1%) and 1-2 (7.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.73%) , while for a Gimnasia Mendoza win it was 1-0 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.