Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 29.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.