Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 27.14% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 16.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.68%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.84%) , while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.