Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 51.44%. A draw had a probability of 29.98% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 18.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.74%) , while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.