Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 55.8%. A draw had a probability of 28.59% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 15.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.21%) , while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.