Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 59%. A draw had a probability of 24.78% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 16.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.03%) and 2-1 (10.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%) , while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.