Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Recoleta win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 29.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Recoleta win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 0-1 (11.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood.