Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 47.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.11% and a win for Deportivo Recoleta had a probability of 26.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%) , while for a Deportivo Recoleta win it was 0-1 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.