Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 40.97%. A draw had a probability of 30.37% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 28.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.37%) and 2-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.83%) , while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.