Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 35.07%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 32.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.98%) and 2-1 (6.96%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (13.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (14.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood.