Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 35.39%. A draw had a probability of 32.66% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 31.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.83%) and 1-2 (6.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.95%) , while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 1-0 (14.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.