Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 42.11%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Santos had a probability of 28.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.62%) , while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood.