Championship Gameweek 2
Aug 22, 2026 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT St. Mary's Stadium
  • Cyle Larin 8' goal
  • James Bree 19' yellowcard
  • Flynn Downes 50' yellowcard
  • Ryan Manning  53' yellowcard
  • Divin Mubama 89' goal
  • Ryan Manning  90'+4' goal
  • goal Ethan Galbraith 26'
  • yellowcard Sam Gallagher 38'
  • yellowcard Ethan Galbraith 62'
  • yellowcard Maksym Taloverov  82'
  • yellowcard Svante Ingelsson 86'
  • redcard Svante Ingelsson 90'+3'

Southampton vs Stoke City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
Last game
Aug 16, 2026 1.30pm
Watford 2 - 1 Southampton
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Cyle Larin

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 3.00pm
Stoke 1 - 2 Swansea
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Ethan Galbraith

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 58.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.46% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 17.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.09%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%) , while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result

Southampton 58.23%
Draw 24.46%
Stoke City 17.28% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.91%

Goals

Over 1.5 70.33% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 1.5 29.67% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 2.5 45.63%
Under 2.5 54.37%
Over 3.5 24.24%
Under 3.5 75.76%
Over 4.5 14.48%
Under 4.5 85.52%

First Half Winner

Southampton 40.8%
Draw 41.24%
Stoke City 17.97%

Team To Score First

Southampton 58.36%
No Goal 9.18% ▼ (-0.01)
Stoke City 32.46% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 69.59%
Equal 8 9.89%
Under 8 20.52%
Over 9 58.49%
Equal 9 11.1%
Under 9 30.41%
Over 10.5 47.1%
Under 10.5 52.9%

Southampton Goals

Over 1.5 49.78% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 50.22% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 23.46% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 76.54% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 9.17% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 90.83% ▲ (+0.02)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5 48.31% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 51.69% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 18.39% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 81.61% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 5.81% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 94.19% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.44%
Under 3.5 98.56%

Score analysis

Southampton 58.22%
Draw 24.46%
Stoke City 17.27%
Southampton
1-0 @ 14.59% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 12.09%
2-1 @ 9.13% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 6.85% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.57% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.06%
Other @ 8.93% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 58.22%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.37% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 9.18% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 3.86%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.46%
Stoke City
0-1 @ 5.85% ▼ (-0.02)
1-2 @ 4.41%
0-2 @ 2.25% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 1.33%
2-3 @ 1.24%
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 17.27%

Head to Head

Championship
Jan 31, 2026 12.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Tatsuki Seko 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Wilmot 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Pearson 46' yellowcard
  • Favour Fawunmi 78' yellowcard
  • goal Finn Azaz 10'
  • goal Flynn Downes 52'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Oyekunle 65'
  • yellowcard Kuryu Matsuki 65'
  • yellowcard Shea Emmanuel Charles 74'
  • yellowcard Ryan Manning 90'
Championship
Aug 23, 2025 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
EFL Cup
Oct 29, 2024 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 7 3
FT St. Mary's Stadium
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Junior Tchamadeu 66' yellowcard
  • Adam Armstrong 66' yellowcard
  • James Bree 88' goal
  • Maxwel Cornet 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • yellowcard Adam Armstrong 66'
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 66'
Championship Gameweek 45
Apr 27, 2024 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT St. Mary's Stadium
  • Jack Stephens 42' yellowcard
  • Jack Stephens 42' yellowcard
  • David Brooks 44' yellowcard
  • David Brooks 44' yellowcard
  • goal Tyrese Campbell 36'
  • goal Tyrese Campbell 36'
  • yellowcard Luke Cundle 38'
  • yellowcard Luke Cundle 38'
Championship Gameweek 10
Oct 3, 2023 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Ki-Jana Hoever 44' yellowcard
  • Ben Pearson 45' yellowcard
  • Daniel Johnson 86' yellowcard
  • Mehdi Leris 87' yellowcard
  • goal Stuart Armstrong 41'
  • yellowcard Flynn Downes 86'
Premier League
Mar 3, 2018 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Geoff Cameron 41'