Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (8.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.