Championship Gameweek 41
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Stoke City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 8.00pm
Coventry 3 - 2 Derby
Goals scored
58
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
Stoke 2 - 0 Sheff Weds
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 47.33%. A draw has a probability of 26.87% and a win for Stoke City has a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.51%) , while for a Stoke City win it is 0-1 (8.37%).

Result

Derby County 47.33% (-0.18)
Draw 26.87% (-0.43)
Stoke City 25.8% (+0.66)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.12% (+0.92)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.95% (+1.00)
Under 1.5 29.05% (-0.99)
Over 2.5 45.88% (+1.11)
Under 2.5 54.12% (-1.07)
Over 3.5 24.56% (+0.81)
Under 3.5 75.44% (-0.82)
Over 4.5 13.19% (+0.47)
Under 4.5 86.81% (-0.47)

First Half Winner

Derby County 32.16% (+0.54)
Draw 46% (+0.22)
Stoke City 21.84% (-0.75)

Team To Score First

Derby County 53.38% (+1.00)
No Goal 8.46% (-0.54)
Stoke City 38.16% (-0.47)

Corners

Over 8 59.57% (+0.22)
Equal 8 11.72% (+0.05)
Under 8 28.7% (-0.27)
Over 9 47.43% (+0.15)
Equal 9 12.14% (+0.08)
Under 9 40.43% (-0.22)
Over 10.5 35.97% (+0.08)
Under 10.5 64.04% (-0.07)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 42.58% (+0.47)
Under 1.5 57.42% (-0.47)
Over 2.5 18.16% (+0.13)
Under 2.5 81.84% (-0.12)
Over 3.5 6.31% (+0.12)
Under 3.5 93.69% (-0.13)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5 60.49% (+0.97)
Under 0.5 39.51% (-0.97)
Over 1.5 25.79% (+1.06)
Under 1.5 74.21% (-1.06)
Over 2.5 7.97% (+0.47)
Under 2.5 92.03% (-0.47)
Over 3.5 2.1% (+0.17)
Under 3.5 97.9% (-0.16)

Score analysis

Derby County 47.33%
Draw 26.88%
Stoke City 25.8%
Derby County
1-0 @ 12.23% (-0.30)
2-1 @ 9.43% (+0.12)
2-0 @ 8.51% (-0.09)
3-1 @ 4.39% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.13% (-0.12)
3-2 @ 2.45% (+0.06)
Other @ 6.19% (+0.12)
Total : 47.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.51% (-0.13)
0-0 @ 8.46% (-0.54)
2-2 @ 4.91% (+0.20)
Other @ 0.12% (+0.01)
Total : 26.88%
Stoke City
0-1 @ 8.37% (-0.11)
1-2 @ 6.42% (+0.26)
0-2 @ 4.04% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.08% (+0.16)
2-3 @ 1.57% (+0.12)
0-3 @ 1.34% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.98% (+0.15)
Total : 25.8%

Head to Head

Championship
Aug 9, 2025 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 46
May 3, 2025 12.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Ebou Adams 60' yellowcard
  • Liam Thompson 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ali Al-Hamadi 29'
Championship Gameweek 13
Nov 2, 2024 12.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Britannia Stadium
  • Tom Cannon 9' goal
  • Andy Moran 71' yellowcard
  • Enda Stevens 77' yellowcard
  • Ben Gibson 82' goal
  • yellowcard Marcus Harness 48'
  • yellowcard Nat Phillips 54'
  • goal Viktor Johansson 68' (OG)
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 79'
Club Friendlies 1
Jul 22, 2023 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Curtis Nelson 19' goal
  • James Collins 26' goal
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 41' goal
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 30, 2021 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Ben Wilmot 16' yellowcard
  • Mario Vrancic 61' yellowcard
  • Josh Tymon 71' yellowcard
  • Tom Ince 78' goal
  • goal Luke Plange 16'
  • yellowcard Luke Plange 59'
  • goal Colin Kazim-Richards 85'
Championship Gameweek 8
Sep 18, 2021 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Graeme Shinnie 8' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 31' goal
  • Curtis Davies 34' goal
  • Louie Sibley 38' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Romaine Sawyers 33'
  • goal Tom Ince 58'
  • yellowcard Leo Skiri Oestigaard 77'
  • yellowcard Tom Ince 89'