Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.