Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 37.2%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (9.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.