Championship
Stoke
Jan 31, 2026 12.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
Southampton
  • Tatsuki Seko 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Wilmot 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Pearson 46' yellowcard
  • Favour Fawunmi 78' yellowcard
  • goal Finn Azaz 10'
  • goal Flynn Downes 52'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Oyekunle 65'
  • yellowcard Kuryu Matsuki 65'
  • yellowcard Shea Emmanuel Charles 74'
  • yellowcard Ryan Manning 90'

Stoke City vs Southampton - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Birmingham 1 - 1 Stoke
Goals scored
43
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Southampton

All competitions
Last game
Jan 25, 2026 12.00pm
Portsmouth 1 - 1 Southampton
Goals scored
60
Top scorer
Finn Azaz

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result

Stoke City 35.43% ▼ (-0.07)
Draw 25.69% ▼ (-0.01)
Southampton 38.84% ▲ (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.56% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.98% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 24.02% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 2.5 51.8% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 48.2% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 29.63% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 70.37% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 4.5 16.22% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 83.78% ▼ (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Stoke City 26.79% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 43.39% ▼ (-0.02)
Southampton 29.82% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Stoke City 43.48% ▼ (-0.02)
No Goal 6.42% ▼ (-0.01)
Southampton 50.1% ▲ (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 61.6% ▲ (+0.33)
Equal 8 11.43% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 8 26.97% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 9 49.57% ▲ (+0.26)
Equal 9 12.02% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 9 38.4% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 10.5 38.03% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 10.5 61.96% ▼ (-0.19)

Stoke City Goals

Over 1.5 36.69% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 63.31% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 14.14% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 85.86% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.59%
Under 3.5 95.41%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5 72.14% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 0.5 27.86% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 1.5 39.49% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 1.5 60.51% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 16.17% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 2.5 83.83% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 5.27% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 94.73% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Stoke City 35.44%
Draw 25.7%
Southampton 38.85%
Stoke City
1-0 @ 8.71% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.1%
2-0 @ 5.73% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.49% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.48% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.42%
Other @ 4.51%
Total : 35.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.18%
0-0 @ 6.42% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.86%
3-3 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 25.7%
Southampton
0-1 @ 8.88%
1-2 @ 8.78% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.26% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 4.06% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.86%
0-3 @ 2.82% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 5.19% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 38.85%

Head to Head

Championship
Southampton
Aug 23, 2025 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Stoke
EFL Cup
Southampton
Oct 29, 2024 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 7 3
FT St. Mary's Stadium
Stoke
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 19' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Adam Armstrong 35' goal
  • Junior Tchamadeu 66' yellowcard
  • Adam Armstrong 66' yellowcard
  • James Bree 88' goal
  • Maxwel Cornet 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Ashley Famiwuya 45'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • goal Tom Cannon 54'
  • yellowcard Adam Armstrong 66'
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 66'
Championship Gameweek 45
Southampton
Apr 27, 2024 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT St. Mary's Stadium
Stoke
  • Jack Stephens 42' yellowcard
  • Jack Stephens 42' yellowcard
  • David Brooks 44' yellowcard
  • David Brooks 44' yellowcard
  • goal Tyrese Campbell 36'
  • goal Tyrese Campbell 36'
  • yellowcard Luke Cundle 38'
  • yellowcard Luke Cundle 38'
Championship Gameweek 10
Stoke
Oct 3, 2023 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
Southampton
  • Ki-Jana Hoever 44' yellowcard
  • Ben Pearson 45' yellowcard
  • Daniel Johnson 86' yellowcard
  • Mehdi Leris 87' yellowcard
  • goal Stuart Armstrong 41'
  • yellowcard Flynn Downes 86'
Premier League
Southampton
Mar 3, 2018 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Stoke
  • yellowcard Geoff Cameron 41'
Premier League
Stoke
Sep 30, 2017 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
Southampton
  • Joe Allen 30' yellowcard
  • Mame Biram Diouf 40' goal
  • Peter Crouch 85' goal
  • yellowcard Dusan Tadic 52'
  • yellowcard Oriol Romeu 57'
  • goal Maya Yoshida 76'

Form Data

Birmingham 1 - 1 Stoke
Stoke 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
Stoke 0 - 0 QPR
Stoke 0 - 0 Coventry
Norwich 0 - 2 Stoke
Hull City 0 - 1 Stoke
Portsmouth 1 - 1 Southampton
Southampton 1 - 0 Sheff Utd
Southampton 1 - 2 Hull City
Doncaster 0 - 0 Southampton
Middlesbrough 4 - 0 Southampton
Southampton 0 - 0 Millwall