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Championship
Dec 29, 2025 at 8.15pm UK
 
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1-1

Neumann (49')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Archer (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
Monday, December 29 at 8.15pm in Championship
Next Game: Watford vs. Birmingham
Thursday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
Monday, December 29 at 8.15pm in Championship
Next Game: Southampton vs. Millwall
Thursday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 55.69%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 22.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawSouthampton
55.69% (0.023000000000003 0.02)22.03% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)22.27% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 58.34% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.43% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)40.57% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.05% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)62.95% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.53% (0.0019999999999953 0)14.47% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.56% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)42.44% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.21% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)31.79% (0.026999999999997 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.77% (-0.032999999999998 -0.03)68.22% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 55.69%
    Southampton 22.27%
    Draw 22.03%
Birmingham CityDrawSouthampton
2-1 @ 9.85% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.89% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.6% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.35% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 5.54% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.64% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 3.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.76% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.19%
5-0 @ 1.04% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 55.69%
1-1 @ 10.19%
2-2 @ 5.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.6% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-3 @ 1.39% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.03%
1-2 @ 5.84% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-1 @ 5.27%
0-2 @ 3.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-3 @ 1.15% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 22.27%

Head to Head
Dec 6, 2025 3pm
Southampton
3-1
Birmingham
Azaz (6'), Armstrong (24', 58')
Aribo (90+2'), Eckert (90+6'), (90+6')
Gray (54')
Iwata (49')
Mar 2, 2024 3pm
gameweek 35
Birmingham
3-4
Southampton
Miyoshi (2'), Stansfield (41'), Bacuna (77')
Miyoshi (24'), Sunjic (87'), Laird (88')
Sanderson (62')
Armstrong (18'), Brooks (55'), Adams (59'), Aribo (90+6')
Smallbone (67')
Oct 28, 2023 12.30pm
gameweek 14
Southampton
3-1
Birmingham
Harwood-Bellis (9'), Alcaraz (22'), Armstrong (86')
Stansfield (58')
Aiwu (44'), Gardner (80'), James (90+3'), Stansfield (90+9')
Feb 4, 2012 5.20pm
Birmingham
0-0
Southampton
Caldwell (89')
Fox (22')
Fox (83')
Sep 18, 2011 3pm
Southampton
4-1
Birmingham
Lambert (34', 11' pen.), Chaplow (78')
Wood (49')
Caldwell (10'), Spector (14'), Carr (81')
rhs 2.0


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