Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 2-1 (6.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.