Championship
Birmingham
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Stoke
  • Tomoki Iwata 42' goal
  • August Priske 56' yellowcard
  • Jhon Solís 57' yellowcard
  • Kyogo Furuhashi 81' yellowcard
  • Scott Wright 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Aaron Cresswell 68'
  • yellowcard Favour Fawunmi 68'
  • goal Phil Neumann 71' (OG)
  • yellowcard Ben Pearson 89'

Birmingham City vs Stoke City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Birmingham City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 7.45pm
Sheff Weds 0 - 2 Birmingham
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Marvin Ducksch

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Stoke 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 60.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.04% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 16.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (10.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%) , while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.

Result

Birmingham City 60.63% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 23.04%
Stoke City 16.3%

Both Teams to Score: 

46.82%

Goals

Over 1.5 72.3% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 27.7% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 47.7% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 52.3% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 25.77% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 74.23% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 15.24% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 84.76% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Birmingham City 44.24%
Draw 38.47%
Stoke City 17.29%

Team To Score First

Birmingham City 61.46%
No Goal 7.95% ▼ (-0.01)
Stoke City 30.59% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.32%
Equal 8 10.87%
Under 8 26.81%
Over 9 50.84%
Equal 9 11.48%
Under 9 37.68%
Over 10.5 39.72%
Under 10.5 60.28%

Birmingham City Goals

Over 1.5 52.45% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 47.55% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 25.21% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 74.79% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 9.87% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 90.13% ▼ (-0.02)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5 49.82% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 0.5 50.18% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 17.76% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 82.24% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 2.5 4.53% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 95.47% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 0.99%
Under 3.5 99.01%

Score analysis

Birmingham City 60.63%
Draw 23.04%
Stoke City 16.31%
Birmingham City
1-0 @ 13.92% ▼ (-0.05)
2-0 @ 11.77% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 10.35%
3-0 @ 6.66%
3-1 @ 5.42%
3-2 @ 2.65%
Other @ 9.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 60.63%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.48% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.95% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 3.99%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 23.04%
Stoke City
0-1 @ 5.81%
1-2 @ 4.26% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.33%
1-3 @ 1.14%
2-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 16.31%

Head to Head

Championship
Stoke
Sep 13, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Birmingham
Championship Gameweek 28
Stoke
Jan 20, 2024 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
Birmingham
  • Jordan Thompson 70' goal
  • Lynden Gooch 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Ben Wilmot 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Jay Stansfield 10'
  • goal Juninho Bacuna 49'
Championship Gameweek 24
Birmingham
Dec 26, 2023 5.15pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Stoke
  • Koji Miyoshi 12' yellowcard
  • Juninho Bacuna 33' yellowcard
  • Jay Stansfield 69' goal
  • goal Jordan Thompson 12'
  • goal Lynden Gooch 31'
  • yellowcard Andre Vidigal 34'
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 51'
  • goal Andre Vidigal 53'
  • yellowcard Joon-Ho Bae 83'
Championship Gameweek 41
Birmingham
Apr 10, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Stoke
Championship Gameweek 20
Stoke
Nov 5, 2022 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
Birmingham
  • Lewis Baker 75' goal
  • goal Scott Hogan 13'
  • goal Harlee Dean 67'
Championship Gameweek 33
Stoke
Feb 19, 2022 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT
Birmingham
  • Tyrese Campbell 25' goal
  • Tyrese Campbell 52' goal
  • goal Jordan James 12'
  • goal Gary Gardner 58'

Form Data

Sheff Weds 0 - 2 Birmingham
Swansea 1 - 1 Birmingham
Cambridge 2 - 3 Birmingham
Birmingham 3 - 2 Coventry
Watford 3 - 0 Birmingham
Birmingham 1 - 1 Southampton
Stoke 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
Stoke 0 - 0 QPR
Stoke 0 - 0 Coventry
Norwich 0 - 2 Stoke
Hull City 0 - 1 Stoke
Stoke 1 - 2 Sheff Utd