Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambridge United win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambridge United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (10.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.