Championship Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Bet365 Stadium

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 4, 2026 3.00pm
Norwich 0 - 0 Stoke
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Jan 16, 2026 8.00pm
West Brom 2 - 3 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
36
Top scorer
Morgan Whittaker

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for Middlesbrough has a probability of 36.75% and a draw has a probability of 25.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win is 0-1 (8.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.4%).

Result

Stoke City 38.07% (+0.08)
Draw 25.19% (-0.03)
Middlesbrough 36.75% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.3% (+0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.12% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 23.88% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 53.4% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 46.6% (-0.06)
Over 3.5 31.57% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 68.43% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 17.97% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 82.03% (-0.07)

First Half Winner

Stoke City 26.8% (+0.02)
Draw 43.85%
Middlesbrough 29.35% (-0.01)

Team To Score First

Stoke City 45.42% (+0.02)
No Goal 6.47% (-0.02)
Middlesbrough 48.11%

Corners

Over 8 55.4%
Equal 8 11.75%
Under 8 32.85%
Over 9 43.65%
Equal 9 11.75%
Under 9 44.6%
Over 10.5 32.86%
Under 10.5 67.14%

Stoke City Goals

Over 1.5 39.4% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 60.6% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 16.92% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 83.08% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 6.15% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 93.85% (-0.07)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 70.36% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 29.64% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 38.2% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 61.8% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 15.6%
Under 2.5 84.4%
Over 3.5 5.12%
Under 3.5 94.88%

Score analysis

Stoke City 38.07%
Draw 25.19%
Middlesbrough 36.75%
Stoke City
1-0 @ 8.73% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.18%
2-0 @ 5.72%
3-1 @ 3.89%
3-2 @ 2.82% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.75%
Other @ 5.98% (+0.07)
Total : 38.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.4% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 6.47% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 5.84%
3-3 @ 1.31%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.19%
Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 8.69% (-0.03)
1-2 @ 8.35%
0-2 @ 5.59%
1-3 @ 3.87%
2-3 @ 2.74%
0-3 @ 2.56%
Other @ 4.95%
Total : 36.75%

Head to Head

Championship
Sep 30, 2025 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 31
Feb 25, 2025 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Joon-Ho Bae 45' goal
  • Tommy Conway 78' yellowcard
  • Andy Moran 83' yellowcard
  • goal Marcus Forss 20'
  • goal Finn Azaz 52'
  • goal Tommy Conway 73'
  • yellowcard Neto Borges 75'
  • yellowcard Tommy Conway 78'
Championship Gameweek 7
Sep 28, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Ben Doak 34' goal
  • George Edmundson 43' yellowcard
  • Hayden Hackney 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ben Doak 56' yellowcard
  • Finn Azaz 66' yellowcard
  • Hayden Hackney 73' goal
  • yellowcard Wouter Burger 11'
  • yellowcard Million Manhoef 27'
  • yellowcard Ben Wilmot 39'
  • yellowcard Tom Cannon 42'
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 59'
  • yellowcard Sam Gallagher 69'
  • yellowcard Michael Rose 82'
EFL Cup
Aug 27, 2024 7.15pm
0
5
HT : 0 1
FT Riverside Stadium
  • goal Emre Tezgel 14'
  • goal Ryan Mmaee 57'
  • goal Lewis Koumas 60'
  • goal Million Manhoef 65'
  • goal Million Manhoef 69'
  • yellowcard Law McCabe 77'
Championship Gameweek 35
Mar 2, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Joon-Ho Bae 40' goal
  • Josh Laurent 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Wilmot 51' yellowcard
  • Niall Ennis 62' yellowcard
  • Lewis Baker 71' goal
  • yellowcard Emmanuel Latte Lath 51'
Championship Gameweek 14
Oct 28, 2023 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Paddy McNair 53' yellowcard
  • Rav van den Berg 57' yellowcard
  • goal Michael Rose 8'
  • goal Mehdi Leris 37'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 69'
  • yellowcard Enda Stevens 90'+2'