Championship Gameweek 28
Stoke
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Tomas Rigo 15' goal
  • Tatsuki Seko 67' yellowcard
  • Eric Junior Bocat 75' yellowcard
  • Eric-Junior Bocat 75' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Delano Burgzorg 46'
  • yellowcard Leo Castledine 46'
  • goal Alan Browne 48'
  • goal Tommy Conway 59'
  • yellowcard Sverre Nypan 79'
  • yellowcard Dael Fry 90'+2'

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Stoke 0 - 0 QPR
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Jan 16, 2026 8.00pm
West Brom 2 - 3 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Morgan Whittaker

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result

Stoke City 35.52% ▲ (+0.13)
Draw 25.07% ▼ (-0.04)
Middlesbrough 39.41% ▼ (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.75% ▼ (-0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.59% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 24.41% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 51.94% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 48.06% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 30% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 3.5 69.96% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 4.5 16.81% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 4.5 83.19% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Stoke City 25.03% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 45.13% ▲ (+0.25)
Middlesbrough 29.84% ▼ (-0.27)

Team To Score First

Stoke City 44.06% ▼ (-0.19)
No Goal 6.65% ▼ (-0.03)
Middlesbrough 49.29% ▲ (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 54.38% ▲ (+0.04)
Equal 8 11.98% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 8 33.64% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 9 42.49% ▼ (-0.04)
Equal 9 11.89% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 9 45.62% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 10.5 31.68% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 10.5 68.32% ▲ (+0.11)

Stoke City Goals

Over 1.5 36.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 63.45% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 14.47% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 85.53% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 4.92% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 95.08% ▼ (-0.02)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 71.85% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 28.15% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 1.5 39.37% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 60.63% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 2.5 16.33% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 83.67% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 5.25%
Under 3.5 94.75%

Score analysis

Stoke City 35.52%
Draw 25.08%
Middlesbrough 39.42%
Stoke City
1-0 @ 8.6% ▲ (+0.02)
2-1 @ 7.92% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5.61% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 3.54% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.54%
3-0 @ 2.4% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 4.91% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 35.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.84% ▲ (+0.06)
0-0 @ 6.65% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 5.51% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.08%
Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 9.18% ▲ (+0.03)
1-2 @ 8.8% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 6.19% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.04% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.82% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 5.24%
Total : 39.42%

Head to Head

Championship
Middlesbrough
Sep 30, 2025 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Stoke
Championship Gameweek 31
Stoke
Feb 25, 2025 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Bet365 Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Joon-Ho Bae 45' goal
  • Tommy Conway 78' yellowcard
  • Andy Moran 83' yellowcard
  • goal Marcus Forss 20'
  • goal Finn Azaz 52'
  • goal Tommy Conway 73'
  • yellowcard Neto Borges 75'
  • yellowcard Tommy Conway 78'
Championship Gameweek 7
Middlesbrough
Sep 28, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Riverside Stadium
Stoke
  • Ben Doak 34' goal
  • George Edmundson 43' yellowcard
  • Hayden Hackney 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ben Doak 56' yellowcard
  • Finn Azaz 66' yellowcard
  • Hayden Hackney 73' goal
  • yellowcard Wouter Burger 11'
  • yellowcard Million Manhoef 27'
  • yellowcard Ben Wilmot 39'
  • yellowcard Tom Cannon 42'
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 59'
  • yellowcard Sam Gallagher 69'
  • yellowcard Michael Rose 82'
EFL Cup
Middlesbrough
Aug 27, 2024 7.15pm
0
5
HT : 0 1
FT Riverside Stadium
Stoke
  • goal Emre Tezgel 14'
  • goal Ryan Mmaee 57'
  • goal Lewis Koumas 60'
  • goal Million Manhoef 65'
  • goal Million Manhoef 69'
  • yellowcard Law McCabe 77'
Championship Gameweek 35
Stoke
Mar 2, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Joon-Ho Bae 40' goal
  • Josh Laurent 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Wilmot 51' yellowcard
  • Niall Ennis 62' yellowcard
  • Lewis Baker 71' goal
  • yellowcard Emmanuel Latte Lath 51'
Championship Gameweek 14
Middlesbrough
Oct 28, 2023 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Riverside Stadium
Stoke
  • Paddy McNair 53' yellowcard
  • Rav van den Berg 57' yellowcard
  • goal Michael Rose 8'
  • goal Mehdi Leris 37'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 69'
  • yellowcard Enda Stevens 90'+2'

Form Data

Stoke 0 - 0 QPR
Stoke 0 - 0 Coventry
Norwich 0 - 2 Stoke
Hull City 0 - 1 Stoke
Stoke 1 - 2 Sheff Utd
Stoke 0 - 0 Preston
West Brom 2 - 3 Middlesbrough
Fulham 0 - 0 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 4 - 0 Southampton
Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Hull City
Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Blackburn