Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (10.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.