Championship Gameweek 28
Jan 20, 2026 7.45pm
The Valley

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Charlton Athletic

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Charlton 0 - 0 Sheff Utd
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Harvey Knibbs

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Preston 0 - 0 Derby
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 34.43% and a draw has a probability of 26.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Derby County win is 0-1 (10.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.24%).

Result

Charlton Athletic 38.62% (-3.61)
Draw 26.96% (+0.02)
Derby County 34.43% (+3.59)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.78% (+0.97)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.8% (-0.10)
Under 1.5 29.2% (+0.09)
Over 2.5 44.57% (-0.83)
Under 2.5 55.43% (+0.83)
Over 3.5 24.04% (-0.54)
Under 3.5 75.96% (+0.54)
Over 4.5 12.5% (-0.08)
Under 4.5 87.5% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Charlton Athletic 27.95% (-2.50)
Draw 47.24% (+1.47)
Derby County 24.8% (+1.02)

Team To Score First

Charlton Athletic 47.32% (-4.65)
No Goal 8.14% (+0.07)
Derby County 44.54% (+4.59)

Corners

Over 8 57.69% (+2.93)
Equal 8 11.32% (-0.25)
Under 8 31% (-2.68)
Over 9 46.17% (+2.93)
Equal 9 11.52% (+0.01)
Under 9 42.31% (-2.93)
Over 10.5 35.39% (+2.68)
Under 10.5 64.61% (-2.68)

Charlton Athletic Goals

Over 1.5 35.4% (-3.36)
Under 1.5 64.6% (+3.36)
Over 2.5 13.5% (-1.91)
Under 2.5 86.5% (+1.91)
Over 3.5 4.25% (-0.75)
Under 3.5 95.75% (+0.74)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 67.28% (+2.52)
Under 0.5 32.72% (-2.53)
Over 1.5 32.1% (+2.50)
Under 1.5 67.9% (-2.49)
Over 2.5 11.03% (+1.40)
Under 2.5 88.97% (-1.41)
Over 3.5 3.17% (+0.53)
Under 3.5 96.83% (-0.54)

Score analysis

Charlton Athletic 38.62%
Draw 26.97%
Derby County 34.45%
Charlton Athletic
1-0 @ 10.85% (-0.58)
2-1 @ 8.1% (-0.58)
2-0 @ 6.92% (-0.70)
3-1 @ 3.59% (-0.54)
3-0 @ 2.61% (-0.57)
3-2 @ 2.31% (+0.04)
Other @ 4.24% (-0.71)
Total : 38.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.24% (+0.49)
0-0 @ 8.14% (+0.07)
2-2 @ 4.84% (-0.38)
Other @ 0.01% (-0.03)
Total : 26.97%
Derby County
0-1 @ 10.25% (+0.66)
1-2 @ 7.88% (+0.52)
0-2 @ 6.04% (+0.92)
1-3 @ 3.13% (+0.45)
2-3 @ 2.04% (+0.18)
0-3 @ 1.95% (+0.34)
Other @ 3.16% (+0.57)
Total : 34.45%

Head to Head

Championship
Sep 30, 2025 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
League One Gameweek 13
Feb 27, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Sonny Bradley 22' yellowcard
  • Eiran Cashin 39' goal
  • Joe Wildsmith 64' yellowcard
  • goal Alfie May 65'
  • goal Karoy Anderson 80'
  • yellowcard Macaulay Gillesphey 82'
  • yellowcard Chuks Aneke 90'+5'
League One Gameweek 31
Feb 3, 2024 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT The Valley
  • Kayne Ramsay 70' yellowcard
  • Daniel Kanu 82' yellowcard
  • goal Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 31'
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 41'
  • yellowcard Eiran Cashin 51'
  • yellowcard Louie Sibley 68'
  • yellowcard Josh Vickers 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Conor Hourihane 90'+5'
League One Gameweek 33
Feb 18, 2023 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • David McGoldrick 9' goal
  • Eiran Cashin 69' goal
League One Gameweek 2
Aug 6, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT The Valley
  • Corey Taylor 62' goal
  • Steven Sessegnon 73' yellowcard
  • Albie Morgan 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 51'
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Jason Knight 10' goal
  • Krystian Bielik 17' redcard
  • Jason Knight 77' goal
  • Duane Holmes 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Naby Sarr 39'
  • yellowcard Conor Gallagher 69'
  • yellowcard Chris Solly 80'
  • yellowcard Darren Pratley 81'
  • goal Lyle Taylor 83'
  • yellowcard Ben Dempsey 90'