Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (8.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.