Championship Gameweek 30
Bristol City
Jan 30, 2026 8.00pm
Robins High Performance Centre
Derby

Bristol City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 7.45pm
Ipswich 2 - 0 Bristol City
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Anis Mehmeti

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 7.45pm
Charlton 1 - 2 Derby
Goals scored
36
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bristol City win with a probability of 43.55%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 30.59% and a draw has a probability of 25.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Derby County win is 0-1 (7.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.11%).

Result

Bristol City 43.55%
Draw 25.86%
Derby County 30.59%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.82%

Goals

Over 1.5 74.95%
Under 1.5 25.05%
Over 2.5 50.81%
Under 2.5 49.19%
Over 3.5 28.8%
Under 3.5 71.2%
Over 4.5 16.02%
Under 4.5 83.98%

First Half Winner

Bristol City 35.61%
Draw 44.03%
Derby County 20.36%

Team To Score First

Bristol City 58.63%
No Goal 7%
Derby County 34.37%

Corners

Over 8 58.04%
Equal 8 11.46%
Under 8 30.5%
Over 9 46.34%
Equal 9 11.7%
Under 9 41.96%
Over 10.5 35.38%
Under 10.5 64.62%

Bristol City Goals

Over 1.5 42.2%
Under 1.5 57.8%
Over 2.5 18.14%
Under 2.5 81.86%
Over 3.5 6.25%
Under 3.5 93.75%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 65.33%
Under 0.5 34.67%
Over 1.5 32.32%
Under 1.5 67.68%
Over 2.5 12.1%
Under 2.5 87.9%
Over 3.5 3.8%
Under 3.5 96.2%

Score analysis

Bristol City 43.54%
Draw 25.85%
Derby County 30.59%
Bristol City
1-0 @ 10.34%
2-1 @ 8.92%
2-0 @ 7.35%
3-1 @ 4.29%
3-0 @ 3.8%
3-2 @ 2.68%
Other @ 6.16%
Total : 43.54%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 7%
2-2 @ 5.53%
3-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 0.09%
Total : 25.85%
Derby County
0-1 @ 7.69%
1-2 @ 7.31%
0-2 @ 4.7%
1-3 @ 2.95%
2-3 @ 2.26%
0-3 @ 1.97%
Other @ 3.71%
Total : 30.59%

Head to Head

Championship
Derby
Aug 22, 2025 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Bristol City
Championship Gameweek 26
Bristol City
Jan 4, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Ashton Gate Stadium
Derby
  • Luke McNally 19' goal
  • Anis Mehmeti 28' yellowcard
  • Ross McCrorie 35' yellowcard
  • Haydon Roberts 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Liam Thompson 45'+2'
Championship Gameweek 4
Derby
Aug 31, 2024 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Bristol City
  • Kenzo Goudmijn 28' goal
  • Kayden Jackson 60' goal
  • Ryan Nyambe 76' yellowcard
  • David Ozoh 89' goal
Championship Gameweek 44
Derby
Apr 23, 2022 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT
Bristol City
  • Nathan Byrne 54' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 61' goal
  • yellowcard Joe Williams 9'
  • goal Andreas Weimann 10'
  • yellowcard Ayman Benarous 16'
  • goal Antoine Semenyo 38'
  • yellowcard Antoine Semenyo 63'
  • goal Timm Klose 79'
Championship Gameweek 21
Bristol City
Dec 4, 2021 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Alex Scott 16' goal
  • Tyreeq Bakinson 39' yellowcard
  • Tomas Kalas 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Cameron Pring 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jason Knight 39'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 40'
Championship Gameweek 27
Derby
Jan 30, 2021 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Bristol City
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 4' goal
  • Martyn Waghorn 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Zak Vyner 54'

Form Data

Ipswich 2 - 0 Bristol City
Oxford Utd 0 - 0 Bristol City
Bristol City 5 - 1 Watford
Bristol City 0 - 0 Preston
Bristol City 5 - 0 Portsmouth
Millwall 2 - 1 Bristol City
Charlton 1 - 2 Derby
Preston 0 - 0 Derby
Derby 1 - 1 Leeds
Derby 0 - 0 Wrexham
Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
Leicester 2 - 1 Derby