Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 44.62%. A draw had a probability of 28.25% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 27.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%) , while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.