Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 31.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (10.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.