Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 43.38%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (10.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.