Championship Gameweek 33
Middlesbrough
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Riverside Stadium
Oxford Utd

Middlesbrough vs Oxford United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Feb 16, 2026 8.00pm
Coventry 3 - 1 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
46
Top scorer
Morgan Whittaker

Oxford United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 7.45pm
Oxford Utd 0 - 0 Norwich
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Filip Krastev

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 66.9%. A draw has a probability of 20.69% and a win for Oxford United has a probability of 12.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.78%) , while for a Oxford United win it is 0-1 (4.82%).

Result

Middlesbrough 66.9%
Draw 20.69% ▲ (+0.04)
Oxford United 12.41% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

43.85% ▼ (-0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.38% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 25.62% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 2.5 49.87% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 50.13% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 28.05% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 71.95% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 4.5 18.31% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 4.5 81.69% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Middlesbrough 48.95%
Draw 37.24%
Oxford United 13.81%

Team To Score First

Middlesbrough 70.15% ▼ (-0.04)
No Goal 7.12% ▲ (+0.05)
Oxford United 22.73% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 67.82%
Equal 8 9.67%
Under 8 22.51%
Over 9 57.16%
Equal 9 10.66%
Under 9 32.18%
Over 10.5 46.34%
Under 10.5 53.66%

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 1.5 57.76% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 42.24% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 31.19% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 68.81% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 14.1% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 85.9% ▲ (+0.04)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5 43.86% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 56.14% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 1.5 13.66% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 86.34% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 2.5 3.16% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 96.84% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 0.64%
Under 3.5 99.36%

Score analysis

Middlesbrough 66.89%
Draw 20.7%
Oxford United 12.42%
Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 13.69% ▲ (+0.04)
2-0 @ 13% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 9.72% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.32%
3-1 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.26%
Other @ 14.02% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 66.89%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.78% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 7.12% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 3.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 20.7%
Oxford United
0-1 @ 4.82% ▲ (+0.02)
1-2 @ 3.41% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 1.74%
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 12.42%

Head to Head

Championship
Oxford Utd
Nov 22, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Middlesbrough
Championship Gameweek 39
Middlesbrough
Mar 29, 2025 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Riverside Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • Kelechi Iheanacho 48' goal
  • Neto Borges 80' goal
  • goal Michal Helik 38'
  • yellowcard Mark Harris 58'
  • yellowcard Ole Romeny 87'
Championship Gameweek 16
Oxford Utd
Nov 23, 2024 3.00pm
2
6
HT : 1 3
FT The Kassam Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Gregory Leigh 24' goal
  • Elliott Moore 35' yellowcard
  • Dane Scarlett 72' goal
  • yellowcard Finn Azaz 27'
  • goal Emmanuel Latte Lath 37'
  • goal Finn Azaz 42'
  • goal Emmanuel Latte Lath 45'
  • goal Emmanuel Latte Lath 49'
  • yellowcard Neto Borges 60'
  • goal Tommy Conway 80'
  • goal Finn Azaz 83'
  • yellowcard George Edmundson 90'+3'
Pre-Season Friendlies
Middlesbrough
Jul 12, 2017 7.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio da Nora
Oxford Utd
FA Cup
Middlesbrough
Feb 18, 2017 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT
Oxford Utd
  • Grant Leadbitter 26' goal
  • Rudy Gestede 34' goal
  • Daniel Ayala 62' yellowcard
  • Calum Chambers 71' yellowcard
  • Cristhian Stuani 86' goal
  • Alvaro Negredo 92' yellowcard
  • goal Chris Maguire 64'
  • goal Antonio Martinez 66'
  • yellowcard Ryan Ledson 76'
  • yellowcard Marvin Johnson 94'

Form Data

Coventry 3 - 1 Middlesbrough
Sheff Utd 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Norwich
Middlesbrough 4 - 0 Preston
Stoke 1 - 2 Middlesbrough
West Brom 2 - 3 Middlesbrough
Oxford Utd 0 - 0 Sunderland
Oxford Utd 0 - 0 Norwich
Coventry 0 - 0 Oxford Utd
Sheff Utd 3 - 1 Oxford Utd
Oxford Utd 0 - 2 Birmingham
Leicester 1 - 2 Oxford Utd