Championship
Derby
Mar 21, 2026 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Birmingham
  • Rhian Brewster 43' goal
  • Jaydon Banel 65' yellowcard
  • Oscar Fraulo 83' yellowcard
  • Carlton Morris 84' yellowcard
  • David Ozoh 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tommy Doyle 58'
  • yellowcard Carlos Vicente 58'
  • yellowcard Jhon Solís 59'
  • yellowcard August Priske 71'
  • yellowcard Kyogo Furuhashi 84'

Derby County vs Birmingham City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Mar 16, 2026 8.00pm
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Birmingham City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
Birmingham 1 - 1 Sheff Utd
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Marvin Ducksch

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 37.27%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (8.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.

Result

Derby County 36.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 26.66%
Birmingham City 37.27% ▲ (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.83% ▲ (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.73% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 25.27% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 2.5 51.28% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 48.75% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 29.94% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 70.06% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 17.24% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 82.76% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Derby County 28.58%
Draw 43.78%
Birmingham City 27.63%

Team To Score First

Derby County 45.94% ▼ (-0.07)
No Goal 7.39% ▼ (-0.04)
Birmingham City 46.67% ▲ (+0.10)

Corners

Over 8 52.72% ▼ (-0.08)
Equal 8 12.24% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 35.04% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 9 40.72% ▼ (-0.07)
Equal 9 12% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 47.28% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 10.5 29.96% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 10.5 70.04% ▲ (+0.06)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 37.01% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 62.99% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 15.09% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 2.5 84.91% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 5.13% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 94.87% ▼ (-0.02)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5 70.56% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 0.5 29.44% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 1.5 38.03% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 61.97% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 2.5 16.1% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 83.9% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 5.82% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 94.18% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Derby County 36.13%
Draw 26.67%
Birmingham City 37.27%
Derby County
1-0 @ 8.96% ▼ (-0.05)
2-1 @ 7.99% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5.67% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.59% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.54% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 4.9% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 36.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.07%
0-0 @ 7.39% ▼ (-0.04)
2-2 @ 5.63% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 26.67%
Birmingham City
0-1 @ 8.99% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 8.05% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 5.71%
1-3 @ 3.59% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.71% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.63%
Other @ 5.59% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 37.27%

Head to Head

Championship
Birmingham
Dec 26, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Derby
  • Christoph Klarer 49' yellowcard
  • Jack Robinson 64' goal
  • Jay Stansfield 71' yellowcard
  • Paik Seung-ho 74' yellowcard
  • Christoph Klarer 90'+2' redcard
  • goal Patrick Agyemang 27'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 29'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 39'
  • yellowcard Sondre Langas 71'
Championship Gameweek 29
Derby
Jan 30, 2022 1.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Birmingham
  • Luke Plange 87' goal
  • Krystian Bielik 90'+5' goal
  • goal Lyle Taylor 7'
  • goal Scott Hogan 56'
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 62'
  • yellowcard Neil Etheridge 63'
  • yellowcard Gary Gardner 70'
  • yellowcard Jordan James 89'
Championship Gameweek 6
Birmingham
Sep 10, 2021 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Scott Hogan 31' goal
  • Ivan Sunjic 57' yellowcard
  • Marc Roberts 76' yellowcard
  • Jeremy Bela 81' goal
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 24'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 76'
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 76'
Championship Gameweek 44
Derby
Apr 24, 2021 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Birmingham
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 36' goal
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 62'
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 84'
Championship Gameweek 22
Birmingham
Dec 29, 2020 5.30pm
0
4
HT : 0 3
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Derby
  • goal Krystian Bielik 15'
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 17'
  • goal Colin Kazim-Richards 26'
  • yellowcard Louie Sibley 67'
  • goal Jason Knight 77'
Championship Gameweek 46
Birmingham
Jul 22, 2020 7.30pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Derby
  • Ivan Sunjic 56' goal
  • 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 6'
  • goal Morgan Whittaker 87'
  • goal Louie Sibley 90'+1'

Form Data

Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby
Millwall 1 - 0 Derby
Derby 2 - 1 Sheff Weds
Derby 3 - 1 Blackburn
Hull City 4 - 2 Derby
Watford 2 - 0 Derby
Birmingham 1 - 1 Sheff Utd
Birmingham 1 - 0 QPR
Charlton 1 - 0 Birmingham
Birmingham 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
Millwall 3 - 0 Birmingham
Norwich 1 - 2 Birmingham