Championship Gameweek 38
Portsmouth
Mar 16, 2026 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Fratton Park
Derby
  • John Swift 63' yellowcard
  • Conor Shaughnessy 63' yellowcard
  • Colby Bishop 77' yellowcard
  • Adrian Segecic 77' yellowcard
  • Makenzie Kirk 83' yellowcard
  • goal Sammie Szmodics 8'
  • yellowcard Oscar Fraulo 61'
  • yellowcard David Ozoh 72'
  • yellowcard Carlton Morris 72'
  • yellowcard Jaydon Banel 83'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 83'

Portsmouth vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Swansea
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Terry Devlin

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Millwall 1 - 0 Derby
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.

Result

Portsmouth 42.11% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 26.1% ▼ (-0.04)
Derby County 31.75% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.91%

Goals

Over 1.5 74.36% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 25.64% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 50.43% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 49.57% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 28.34% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 71.66% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 15.61% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 84.39% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Portsmouth 28.5%
Draw 44.47%
Derby County 27.04%

Team To Score First

Portsmouth 47.97% ▲ (+0.01)
No Goal 7.1% ▼ (-0.03)
Derby County 44.93% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 58.66% ▼ (-0.03)
Equal 8 11.16%
Under 8 30.18% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 9 47.21% ▼ (-0.02)
Equal 9 11.45%
Under 9 41.34% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 10.5 36.41% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 10.5 63.58% ▲ (+0.01)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 1.5 41.1% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 58.9% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 17.49% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 82.51% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 5.97% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.03% ▼ (-0.02)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 66.77% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 0.5 33.23% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 32.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 67.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 12.08% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 87.92% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.71% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.29% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Portsmouth 42.11%
Draw 26.1%
Derby County 31.76%
Portsmouth
1-0 @ 10.03% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.02% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.86% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.39% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.71% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 5.82% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 42.11%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.21% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.1% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 5.5%
3-3 @ 1.14%
Other @ 0.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 26.1%
Derby County
0-1 @ 8.48% ▼ (-0.02)
1-2 @ 7.64%
0-2 @ 4.85% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.94%
2-3 @ 2.23%
0-3 @ 2.06%
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 31.76%

Head to Head

Championship
Derby
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT
Portsmouth
  • Rhian Brewster 44' yellowcard
  • Hayden Matthews 45' goal
  • goal Callum Lang 6'
  • yellowcard Andre Dozzell 42'
Championship Gameweek 42
Portsmouth
Apr 12, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT Fratton Park
Derby
  • Zak Swanson 27' yellowcard
  • Isaac Hayden 33' yellowcard
  • Christian Saydee 68' yellowcard
  • Colby Bishop 69' yellowcard
  • Rob Atkinson 71' goal
  • Rob Atkinson 80' yellowcard
  • Rob Atkinson 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Jacob Widell Zetterstrom 6'
  • yellowcard Matt Clarke 21'
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 34'
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 57'
  • goal Jerry Yates 70'
  • goal Rob Atkinson 75' (OG)
Championship Gameweek 21
Derby
Dec 13, 2024 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 3 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth
  • Kane Wilson 8' goal
  • Eiran Cashin 23' goal
  • Ebou Adams 29' goal
  • Marlon Pack 65' goal
  • yellowcard Tom McIntyre 84'
League One Gameweek 42
Portsmouth
Apr 2, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Fratton Park
Derby
  • Patrick Lane 20' yellowcard
  • Abu Kamara 27' goal
  • Connor Ogilvie 72' yellowcard
  • Owen Moxon 77' goal
  • goal Joe Ward 23'
  • goal Joe Ward 35'
  • yellowcard James Collins 43'
League One Gameweek 8
Derby
Sep 16, 2023 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth
  • Tyrese Fornah 26' yellowcard
  • James Collins 86' goal
  • James Collins 88' yellowcard
  • 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marlon Pack 10'
  • yellowcard Regan Poole 28'
  • yellowcard Alex Robertson 65'
  • goal Colby Bishop 90'+5'
League One Gameweek 45
Derby
Apr 29, 2023 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth
  • James Collins 71' goal
  • goal Colby Bishop 24'

Form Data

Portsmouth 1 - 2 Swansea
Blackburn 1 - 1 Portsmouth
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Hull City
Wrexham 2 - 1 Portsmouth
Millwall 1 - 3 Portsmouth
Charlton 1 - 3 Portsmouth
Millwall 1 - 0 Derby
Derby 2 - 1 Sheff Weds
Derby 3 - 1 Blackburn
Hull City 4 - 2 Derby
Watford 2 - 0 Derby
Derby 2 - 0 Swansea