Championship Gameweek 38
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
Bet365 Stadium

Stoke City vs Watford - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 3.00pm
Swansea 2 - 0 Stoke
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Feb 27, 2026 8.00pm
Bristol City 1 - 2 Watford
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Luca Kjerrumgaard

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Watford has a probability of 33.23% and a draw has a probability of 28.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Watford win is 0-1 (10.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.48%).

Result

Stoke City 38.21%
Draw 28.56%
Watford 33.23%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.3%

Goals

Over 1.5 69.16%
Under 1.5 30.84%
Over 2.5 43.05%
Under 2.5 56.95%
Over 3.5 21.88%
Under 3.5 78.12%
Over 4.5 10.97%
Under 4.5 89.03%

First Half Winner

Stoke City 31.2%
Draw 44.99%
Watford 23.81%

Team To Score First

Stoke City 48.69%
No Goal 9.25%
Watford 42.06%

Corners

Over 8 62.13%
Equal 8 11.1%
Under 8 26.77%
Over 9 50.41%
Equal 9 11.72%
Under 9 37.87%
Over 10.5 39.09%
Under 10.5 60.91%

Stoke City Goals

Over 1.5 34.44%
Under 1.5 65.56%
Over 2.5 12.47%
Under 2.5 87.53%
Over 3.5 3.65%
Under 3.5 96.35%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5 65.92%
Under 0.5 34.08%
Over 1.5 30.78%
Under 1.5 69.22%
Over 2.5 10.54%
Under 2.5 89.46%
Over 3.5 2.86%
Under 3.5 97.14%

Score analysis

Stoke City 38.22%
Draw 28.57%
Watford 33.23%
Stoke City
1-0 @ 11.45%
2-1 @ 8.27%
2-0 @ 6.93%
3-1 @ 3.23%
3-0 @ 2.89%
3-2 @ 1.87%
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 38.22%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.48%
0-0 @ 9.25%
2-2 @ 4.94%
Other @ 0.07%
Total : 28.57%
Watford
0-1 @ 10.16%
1-2 @ 7.75%
0-2 @ 5.68%
1-3 @ 2.76%
0-3 @ 2.26%
2-3 @ 1.83%
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 33.23%

Head to Head

Championship
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Vivaldo Semedo 66' yellowcard
  • Matthew Pollock 69' yellowcard
  • Luca Kjerrumgaard 74' goal
  • Nestory Irankunda 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robert Bozenik 30'
  • yellowcard Sorba Thomas 59'
  • yellowcard Maksym Talovierov 83'
Championship Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Ben Pearson 33' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Imran Louza 33'
  • yellowcard Giorgi Chakvetadze 69'
Championship Gameweek 2
Aug 17, 2024 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Vicarage Road
  • Jake Livermore 15' goal
  • Valerien Ismael 15' yellowcard
  • Ismael Kone 42' yellowcard
  • Jake Livermore 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 52' redcard
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 72' yellowcard
  • James Morris 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 14'
  • goal Ryan Mmaee 34'
Championship Gameweek 3
Aug 19, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Wesley 52' yellowcard
  • Andre Vidigal 53' goal
  • Jordan Thompson 77' yellowcard
  • Daniel Johnson 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ismael Kone 60'
Championship Gameweek 46
May 8, 2023 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Imran Louza 70' goal
  • Keinan Davis 74' goal