Championship Gameweek 38
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Million Manhoef 28' goal
  • Ben Gibson 70' yellowcard
  • Sam Gallagher 71' yellowcard
  • Million Manhoef 77' goal
  • Ben Pearson 79' yellowcard
  • Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 79' yellowcard
  • Tatsuki Seko 83' yellowcard
  • Sam Gallagher 85' goal
  • yellowcard Nestory Irankunda 62'
  • yellowcard Nampalys Mendy 71'
  • yellowcard Pierre Ekwah 71'
  • goal Nestory Irankunda 81'
  • yellowcard Edoardo Bove 86'
  • yellowcard Luca Kjerrumgaard 86'

Stoke City vs Watford - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 8.00pm
Stoke 3 - 3 Ipswich
Goals scored
46
Top scorer
Sorba Thomas

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Sheff Weds 1 - 1 Watford
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Luca Kjerrumgaard

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 35.81%. A win for Watford had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 28.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.52%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (10.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result

Stoke City 35.81% (+0.07)
Draw 28.82%
Watford 35.37% (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.79% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.68% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 32.32% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 41.9%
Under 2.5 58.1% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 21.74%
Under 3.5 78.26%
Over 4.5 11.02% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 88.98% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Stoke City 29.74%
Draw 44.55%
Watford 25.71%

Team To Score First

Stoke City 44.39% (-0.01)
No Goal 9.99% (+0.02)
Watford 45.62% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.66%
Equal 8 11.16%
Under 8 26.18%
Over 9 50.83%
Equal 9 11.83%
Under 9 37.34%
Over 10.5 39.37%
Under 10.5 60.63%

Stoke City Goals

Over 1.5 31.88% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 68.12% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 11.11% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 88.89% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 3.1% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 96.9% (-0.01)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5 66.44% (-0.07)
Under 0.5 33.56% (+0.07)
Over 1.5 32.02% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 67.98% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 11.67% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 88.33% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 3.5% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 96.5% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Stoke City 35.83%
Draw 28.83%
Watford 35.36%
Stoke City
1-0 @ 11.56% (+0.04)
2-1 @ 7.52% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.54% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 2.95% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 2.48% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 1.77% (+0.02)
Other @ 3.01% (+0.01)
Total : 35.83%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.16% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 9.99% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 4.78%
Other @ 0.09%
Total : 28.83%
Watford
0-1 @ 10.79% (-0.02)
1-2 @ 7.72% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 6.08% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 3% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.43% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.93%
Other @ 3.41% (-0.01)
Total : 35.36%

Head to Head

Championship
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Vivaldo Semedo 66' yellowcard
  • Matthew Pollock 69' yellowcard
  • Luca Kjerrumgaard 74' goal
  • Nestory Irankunda 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robert Bozenik 30'
  • yellowcard Sorba Thomas 59'
  • yellowcard Maksym Talovierov 83'
Championship Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Ben Pearson 33' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Imran Louza 33'
  • yellowcard Giorgi Chakvetadze 69'
Championship Gameweek 2
Aug 17, 2024 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Vicarage Road
  • Jake Livermore 15' goal
  • Valerien Ismael 15' yellowcard
  • Ismael Kone 42' yellowcard
  • Jake Livermore 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 52' redcard
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 72' yellowcard
  • James Morris 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 14'
  • goal Ryan Mmaee 34'
Championship Gameweek 3
Aug 19, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Wesley 52' yellowcard
  • Andre Vidigal 53' goal
  • Jordan Thompson 77' yellowcard
  • Daniel Johnson 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ismael Kone 60'
Championship Gameweek 46
May 8, 2023 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Imran Louza 70' goal
  • Keinan Davis 74' goal