Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 35.81%. A win for Watford had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 28.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.52%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (10.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.