Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 49.58%. A draw had a probability of 25.87% and a win for Watford had a probability of 24.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%) , while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.