Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 58.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.32%) and 2-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%) , while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.