Championship Gameweek 40
Apr 3, 2026 8.00pm
The Coventry Building Society Arena

Coventry City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Coventry City

All competitions
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 5.15pm
Swansea 0 - 3 Coventry
Goals scored
81
Top scorer
Ellis Simms

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 12.30pm
Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Coventry City win with a probability of 58.79%. A draw has a probability of 22.13% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 19.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.33%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.45%) , while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (5.26%).

Result

Coventry City 58.79% (+0.08)
Draw 22.13%
Derby County 19.08% (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.65% (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.51% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 21.49% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 55.77% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 44.19% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 33.52% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 66.48% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 20.53% (-0.03)
Under 4.5 79.47% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Coventry City 39.13%
Draw 40.82%
Derby County 20.05%

Team To Score First

Coventry City 63.04% (-0.01)
No Goal 5.5% (+0.01)
Derby County 31.46%

Corners

Over 8 60.19%
Equal 8 11.09%
Under 8 28.72%
Over 9 48.68%
Equal 9 11.51%
Under 9 39.81%
Over 10.5 37.71%
Under 10.5 62.29%

Coventry City Goals

Over 1.5 55.89% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 44.11% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 29.24% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 70.76% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 12.43% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 87.57% (-0.03)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 55.79% (-0.10)
Under 0.5 44.21% (+0.10)
Over 1.5 23.5% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 76.5% (+0.10)
Over 2.5 7.21% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 92.79% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 2% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 98% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Coventry City 58.79%
Draw 22.14%
Derby County 19.08%
Coventry City
1-0 @ 10.74% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 10.33%
2-0 @ 9.64% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 6.25%
3-0 @ 6.01% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.49% (-0.01)
Other @ 12.33% (+0.02)
Total : 58.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.45% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.5% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.03% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 22.14%
Derby County
0-1 @ 5.26%
1-2 @ 5.13% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.64%
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.02)
Other @ 1.9% (-0.04)
Total : 19.08%

Head to Head

Championship
Aug 16, 2025 12.30pm
3
5
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 37
Mar 11, 2025 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Matt Clarke 23' goal
  • Harrison Armegang 28' yellowcard
  • Marcus Harness 48' goal
  • Marcus Harness 54' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jake Bidwell 46'
Championship Gameweek 14
Nov 6, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT The Coventry Building Society Arena
  • Tatsuhiro Sakamoto 77' goal
  • Josh Eccles 78' yellowcard
  • goal Jerry Yates 11'
  • yellowcard Eiran Cashin 34'
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 59'
  • goal Bobby Thomas 73' (OG)
Championship Gameweek 39
Mar 19, 2022 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Nathan Byrne 57' yellowcard
  • Tom Lawrence 66' goal
  • yellowcard Jake Bidwell 22'
  • goal Matt Godden 28'
  • yellowcard Fankaty Dabo 54'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Hamer 66'
FA Cup
Jan 8, 2022 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT The Coventry Building Society Arena
  • Dominic Hyam 42' goal
  • Jordan Shipley 53' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Phil Jagielka 31'
  • yellowcard Festy Ebosele 57'
Championship Gameweek 14
Oct 23, 2021 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Matt Godden 20' goal
  • Ian Maatsen 44' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Curtis Davies 71'
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 78'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 88'