Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 53.2%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.