Fluminense
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
Apr 30, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Fluminense
1 - 0
Aparecidense

Keno (81', 81')
Fuentes (45+2'), Fuentes (45+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Henrique Gomes (44'), Henrique Gomes (44'), Junio Manoel dos Santos (66'), Junio Manoel dos Santos (66'), da Silva Rocha (70'), da Silva Rocha (70'), Carvalho (90+2'), Carvalho (90+2')
Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Fluminense and Aparecidense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fluminense

All competitions
Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Botafogo 2-0 Fluminense
Sunday, April 27 at 1am in Brasileiro

Aparecidense

All competitions
Last Game: Aparecidense 1-0 Cascavel
Wednesday, March 5 at 12.30am in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 74.58%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Aparecidense had a probability of 8.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12%) and 3-0 (10.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for an Aparecidense win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
FluminenseDrawAparecidense
74.58% (0.012999999999991 0.01)16.54% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)8.88% (-0.0059000000000005 -0.01)
Both teams to score 43.13% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.62% (0.015000000000001 0.02)43.38% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.22% (0.014000000000003 0.01)65.78% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.97% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)10.03% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.92% (0.016999999999996 0.02)33.08% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Aparecidense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.94% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)52.06% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)86.04% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Fluminense 74.57%
    Aparecidense 8.88%
    Draw 16.54%
FluminenseDrawAparecidense
2-0 @ 13.8%
1-0 @ 12%
3-0 @ 10.58%
2-1 @ 9.01% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 6.91% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-0 @ 6.09% (0.0039999999999996 0)
4-1 @ 3.97% (0.0019999999999998 0)
5-0 @ 2.8% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.26%
5-1 @ 1.83% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 1.3% (0.00099999999999989 0)
6-0 @ 1.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 74.57%
1-1 @ 7.84% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 5.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 2.94% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 16.54%
0-1 @ 3.41% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 2.56% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 1.11% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 8.88%