Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 55.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Deportes Iquique had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.93%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Deportes Iquique win it was 1-0 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.