Champions League
Gameweek
4
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F17%2Faeklog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Frmilog.png)
-
Aboubakary Koita
12'
-
Kervin Arriaga
34'
-
Stavros Pilios
75'
-
Aboubakary Koita
90'+5'
-
Jude Bellingham
32'
-
Marc Cucurella
65'
-
Kylian Mbappé
78'
-
Federico Valverde
90'+2'
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Reaction
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F11%2Fimago1085512572h-6aeb933daeed8773255360.jpg)
News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fimago1084532042h-6acfdc3e205b9676393039.jpg)
Feature
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F11%2Fvini-verdict-email-sportmole-6aeba443ee60b178603470.png)
The match
Team News
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Ficonsport-373804-0022-6aa07b0f19c43357017516.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Faaa-mbappe-6ad5cbd0d4cb3647808267.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F08%2Fimago1080810926-6a79eac4bc78c704451712.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 36.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.31%) and 0-2 (5.17%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 2-1 (7.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
Result
AEK Athens
36.59%
Draw
23.85%
Real Madrid
39.52%
Both Teams to Score:
61.37%
▼
(-0.04)
Goals
Over 1.5
82.51%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 1.5
17.49%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 2.5
61.58%
Under 2.5
38.42%
▲
(+0.04)
Over 3.5
40.92%
Under 3.5
59.08%
Over 4.5
26.56%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 4.5
73.44%
▼
(-0.02)
First Half Winner
AEK Athens
36.14%
Draw
37.92%
Real Madrid
25.95%
Team To Score First
AEK Athens
51.77%
No Goal
4.83%
Real Madrid
43.4%
Corners
Over 8
61.29%
Equal 8
10.36%
Under 8
28.35%
Over 9
50.47%
Equal 9
10.82%
Under 9
38.71%
Over 10.5
40.02%
Under 10.5
59.98%
AEK Athens Goals
Over 1.5
42.6%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 1.5
57.4%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 2.5
20.15%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
79.85%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 3.5
9.2%
Under 3.5
90.8%
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5
71.75%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
28.25%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 1.5
44.19%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
55.81%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 2.5
22.66%
Under 2.5
77.34%
Over 3.5
9.63%
Under 3.5
90.37%
Score analysis
AEK Athens
36.6%
Draw
23.86%
Real Madrid
39.53%
AEK Athens
2-1
@
7.08%
1-0 @ 6.34%
2-0 @ 5.15%
3-1 @ 3.58%
3-0 @ 3.13%
3-2 @ 2.53% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 8.79%
Total : 36.6%
1-0 @ 6.34%
2-0 @ 5.15%
3-1 @ 3.58%
3-0 @ 3.13%
3-2 @ 2.53% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 8.79%
Total : 36.6%
Draw
1-1
@
10.59%
2-2 @ 6.32% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.83%
3-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 23.86%
2-2 @ 6.32% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.83%
3-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 23.86%
Real Madrid
1-2
@
7.51%
0-1 @ 6.31%
0-2 @ 5.17%
1-3 @ 4.47%
2-3 @ 3.9%
0-3 @ 2.95%
Other @ 9.22%
Total : 39.53%
0-1 @ 6.31%
0-2 @ 5.17%
1-3 @ 4.47%
2-3 @ 3.9%
0-3 @ 2.95%
Other @ 9.22%
Total : 39.53%
Form Data
Build-up
Head to head
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fmourinho-real-6ac7a6d559efe515788919.jpg)