World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Mar 23, 2025 at 1pm UK

Nyayo National Stadium

Kenya
1 - 2
Gabon

Olunga (62')
Nondi (89'), Onyango (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Aubameyang (16', 52' pen.)
Moucketou-Moussounda (39'), Lemina (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Kenya and Gabon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kenya

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Gambia 3-3 Kenya
Thursday, March 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Algeria	3	6	9
2	Senegal	3	4	6
3	Kenya	3	-4	3
4	Tanzania	3	-6	0

Gabon

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Gabon 3-0 Seychelles
Thursday, March 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Gabon	3	1	5
3	Comoros	3	-2	3
4	Ghana	3	-2	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 40.18%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 29.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.25%) and 1-2 (7.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a Kenya win it was 1-0 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gabon would win this match.

Result
Kenya	Draw	Gabon
29.27% ( -0.04)	30.55% ( -0.02)	40.18% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 39.72% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.53% (

0.05)

67.47% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.42% (

0.03)

85.58% (

-0.03)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.31% (

-0)

40.69% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.72% (

-0.01)

77.28% (

Gabon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.98% (

0.06)

33.02% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.39% (

0.07)

69.61% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Kenya 29.27%

Gabon 40.17%

Draw 30.54%

Kenya	Draw	Gabon
1-0 @ 12.08% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.02% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.8% 3-0 @ 1.63% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 1.31% Total : 29.27%	0-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.03) 1-1 @ 13.38% 2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0) Other @ 0.39% Total : 30.54%	0-1 @ 14.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 40.17%