Aug 2, 2026 2.30pm

1

2

HT : 1 0

FT Deeside College Stadium

Michael Stone 27'

Sion Bradley 59'
Danny Gosset 63'
Ben Nash 70'
Zack Clarke 72'
Noah Edwards 90'+2'

Connah's Quay Nomads vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions

L
D
W
D
L
D

Welsh Premier League

D
L
D
W
W
L

Last game

Apr 18, 2026 5.15pm

Connah's Quay 1 - 1 Colwyn Bay

Caernarfon Town

All competitions

L
L
W
W
W
L

Welsh Premier League

W
W
L
L
L
W

Last game

Apr 18, 2026 5.15pm

Caernarfon 2 - 0 Pen-y-Bont

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 48.9%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result

Connah's Quay Nomads 48.9% ▲ (+0.15)

Draw 23.88% ▼ (-0.02)

Caernarfon Town 27.23% ▼ (-0.13)

Both Teams to Score:

58.43% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.75% ▲ (+0.05)

Under 1.5 21.25% ▼ (-0.04)

Over 2.5 56.33% ▲ (+0.04)

Under 2.5 43.67% ▼ (-0.04)

Over 3.5 33.73% ▲ (+0.04)

Under 3.5 66.27% ▼ (-0.05)

Over 4.5 20.02% ▲ (+0.06)

Under 4.5 79.98% ▼ (-0.07)

First Half Winner

Connah's Quay Nomads 38.35% ▲ (+0.10)

Draw 38.39% ▼ (-0.08)

Caernarfon Town 23.26% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Connah's Quay Nomads 53.96% ▼ (-0.01)

No Goal 5.63% ▼ (-0.01)

Caernarfon Town 40.41% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.44% ▼ (-0.04)

Equal 8 11.15% ▼ (-0.01)

Under 8 26.41% ▲ (+0.04)

Over 9 50.63% ▼ (-0.03)

Equal 9 11.8% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 9 37.56% ▲ (+0.04)

Over 10.5 39.21% ▼ (-0.01)

Under 10.5 60.79% ▲ (+0.01)

Connah's Quay Nomads Goals

Over 1.5 49.23% ▲ (+0.14)

Under 1.5 50.77% ▼ (-0.14)

Over 2.5 23.81% ▲ (+0.12)

Under 2.5 76.19% ▼ (-0.13)

Over 3.5 9.59% ▲ (+0.07)

Under 3.5 90.41% ▼ (-0.07)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 64.05% ▼ (-0.08)

Under 0.5 35.95% ▲ (+0.09)

Over 1.5 31.36% ▼ (-0.09)

Under 1.5 68.64% ▲ (+0.10)

Over 2.5 11.47% ▼ (-0.05)

Under 2.5 88.53% ▲ (+0.05)

Over 3.5 3.59% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 3.5 96.41% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Connah's Quay Nomads 48.89%

Draw 23.88%

Caernarfon Town 27.23%

Connah's Quay Nomads

2-1 @ 9.88% ▲ (+0.03)

1-0 @ 9.13% ▼ (-0.01)

2-0 @ 7.46% ▲ (+0.02)

3-1 @ 5.25% ▲ (+0.02)

3-0 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.03)

3-2 @ 3.44% ▲ (+0.01)

Other @ 9.45% ▲ (+0.06)

Total : 48.89%

Draw

1-1 @ 11.07% ▼ (-0.01)

2-2 @ 5.79% ▼ (-0.01)

0-0 @ 5.63% ▼ (-0.01)

3-3 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.02)

Other @ 0.14%

Total : 23.88%

Caernarfon Town

1-2 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.03)

0-1 @ 6.49% ▼ (-0.02)

0-2 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.02)

1-3 @ 2.68% ▼ (-0.03)

2-3 @ 2.29% ▼ (-0.01)

0-3 @ 1.66% ▼ (-0.03)

Other @ 3.45% ▼ (-0.01)

Total : 27.23%

Head to Head

Mar 13, 2026 7.45pm

2

4

HT : 1 1

FT The Oval

Phil Mooney 13'
Adam Davies 68'
Rio Lloyd Owen 68'
Darren Thomas 87'
Rio Lloyd Owen 90'+4'

Harry Franklin 1'
36'
Rhys Hughes 36'
Noah Edwards 68'
Harry Franklin 71'
Max Woodcock 79'
Dan Roberts 89'
Freddie Redshaw 90'+4'

Feb 6, 2026 7.45pm

1

1

HT : 0 0

FT Deeside College Stadium

Rhys Hughes 43'
Rhys Hughes 44'
Callum Bratley 81'
Jason Oswell 86'
Jason Oswell 87'

Matthew Jones 69'
Zack Clarke 69'
Mathew Jones 69'
87'
Adam Davies 87'
Rio Lloyd Owen 87'
S. Bradley 90'+2'
Sion Bradley 90'+2'

Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm

2

2

HT : 1 1

FT The Oval

Phil Mooney 25'
Rio Owen 58'
Rio Owen 59'
Connor Salisbury 75'
Phil Mooney 80'
Phil Mooney 81'

Callum Bratley 2'
James Jones 28'
James Jones 29'
Rhys Hughes 59'
Max Woodcock 85'
Freddie Redshaw 85'

Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm

1

2

HT : 0 0

FT

Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm

1

1

HT : 1 0

FT Deeside College Stadium

Rhys Hughes 34'
Chris Marriott 69'
Ben Nash 71'
Noah Edwards 82'

Paulo Mendes 15'
Adam Davies 61'
Ryan Sears 65'
Phil Mooney 83'
Phil Mooney 88'

Sep 28, 2024 5.15pm

3

1

HT : 2 0

FT The Oval

Paulo Mendes 18'
Darren Thomas 28'
Darren Thomas 45'+1'
Zack Clarke 56'
Ryan Sears 85'
Joe Faux 90'+7'

Chris Marriott 38'
John Disney 83'

Form Data

KF Ballkani 3 - 2 Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay 0 - 0 KF Ballkani

QotS 0 - 1 Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay 1 - 1 Colwyn Bay

New Saints 2 - 1 Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay 1 - 1 Barry

Levadia 5 - 0 Caernarfon

Caernarfon 0 - 5 Levadia

Glentoran 1 - 2 Caernarfon

Caernarfon 2 - 0 Pen-y-Bont

Colwyn Bay 0 - 2 Caernarfon

Caernarfon 0 - 4 New Saints