Welsh Premier League Gameweek 1
Aug 2, 2026 2.30pm
Deeside College Stadium

Connah's Quay Nomads vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Apr 18, 2026 5.15pm
Connah's Quay 1 - 1 Colwyn Bay

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Apr 18, 2026 5.15pm
Caernarfon 2 - 0 Pen-y-Bont

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for Caernarfon Town has a probability of 27.36% and a draw has a probability of 23.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win is 1-2 (6.81%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.08%).

Result

Connah's Quay Nomads 48.75% (+0.01)
Draw 23.89% (-0.01)
Caernarfon Town 27.36%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.44%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.71% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 21.29% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 56.3%
Under 2.5 43.7%
Over 3.5 33.69% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 66.31% (-0.01)
Over 4.5 19.96% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 80.04% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Connah's Quay Nomads 38.26% (+0.01)
Draw 38.46% (-0.01)
Caernarfon Town 23.28% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Connah's Quay Nomads 53.97%
No Goal 5.64%
Caernarfon Town 40.39%

Corners

Over 8 62.48% (+0.02)
Equal 8 11.16%
Under 8 26.37% (-0.02)
Over 9 50.66% (+0.02)
Equal 9 11.82%
Under 9 37.52% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 39.22% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 60.78% (-0.01)

Connah's Quay Nomads Goals

Over 1.5 49.09% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 50.91% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 23.69% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 76.31% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 9.53%
Under 3.5 90.47%

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 64.13% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 35.87% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 31.45% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 68.55% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 11.52% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 88.48% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.6%
Under 3.5 96.4%

Score analysis

Connah's Quay Nomads 48.75%
Draw 23.9%
Caernarfon Town 27.35%
Connah's Quay Nomads
2-1 @ 9.86%
1-0 @ 9.14%
2-0 @ 7.44%
3-1 @ 5.23%
3-0 @ 4.26% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.43%
Other @ 9.39%
Total : 48.75%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.08%
2-2 @ 5.8%
0-0 @ 5.64%
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 23.9%
Caernarfon Town
1-2 @ 6.81%
0-1 @ 6.51%
0-2 @ 3.89%
1-3 @ 2.7%
2-3 @ 2.3%
0-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 27.35%

Head to Head

Welsh Premier League
Mar 13, 2026 7.45pm
2
4
HT : 1 1
FT The Oval
  • Phil Mooney 13' goal
  • Adam Davies 68' yellowcard
  • Rio Lloyd Owen 68' yellowcard
  • Darren Thomas 87' yellowcard
  • Rio Lloyd Owen 90'+4' goal
  • goal Harry Franklin 1'
  • yellowcard 36'
  • yellowcard Rhys Hughes 36'
  • goal Noah Edwards 68'
  • goal Harry Franklin 71'
  • yellowcard Max Woodcock 79'
  • yellowcard Dan Roberts 89'
  • yellowcard Freddie Redshaw 90'+4'
Welsh Premier League
Feb 6, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Deeside College Stadium
  • Rhys Hughes 43' yellowcard
  • Rhys Hughes 44' yellowcard
  • Callum Bratley 81' yellowcard
  • Jason Oswell 86' yellowcard
  • Jason Oswell 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matthew Jones 69'
  • yellowcard Zack Clarke 69'
  • yellowcard Mathew Jones 69'
  • yellowcard 87'
  • yellowcard Adam Davies 87'
  • yellowcard Rio Lloyd Owen 87'
  • yellowcard S. Bradley 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Sion Bradley 90'+2'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 22
Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT The Oval
  • Phil Mooney 25' goal
  • Rio Owen 58' yellowcard
  • Rio Owen 59' yellowcard
  • Connor Salisbury 75' yellowcard
  • Phil Mooney 80' goal
  • Phil Mooney 81' goal
  • goal Callum Bratley 2'
  • yellowcard James Jones 28'
  • yellowcard James Jones 29'
  • goal Rhys Hughes 59'
  • yellowcard Max Woodcock 85'
  • yellowcard Freddie Redshaw 85'
Welsh Premier League
Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 18
Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Deeside College Stadium
  • Rhys Hughes 34' goal
  • Chris Marriott 69' yellowcard
  • Ben Nash 71' yellowcard
  • Noah Edwards 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paulo Mendes 15'
  • goal Adam Davies 61'
  • yellowcard Ryan Sears 65'
  • yellowcard Phil Mooney 83'
  • redcard Phil Mooney 88'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 10
Sep 28, 2024 5.15pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT The Oval
  • Paulo Mendes 18' goal
  • Darren Thomas 28' yellowcard
  • Darren Thomas 45'+1' goal
  • Zack Clarke 56' goal
  • Ryan Sears 85' yellowcard
  • Joe Faux 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Chris Marriott 38'
  • goal John Disney 83'