Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 52.59%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 22.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 (6.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.