Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barry Town United win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barry Town United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 0-1 (6.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.