Feb 6, 2026 7.45pm

1

1

HT : 0 0

FT Deeside College Stadium

Rhys Hughes 43'
Rhys Hughes 44'
Callum Bratley 81'
Jason Oswell 86'
Jason Oswell 87'

Matthew Jones 69'
Zack Clarke 69'
Mathew Jones 69'
87'
Adam Davies 87'
Rio Lloyd Owen 87'
S. Bradley 90'+2'
Sion Bradley 90'+2'

Connah's Quay Nomads vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions

D
D
W
W
W
W

Welsh Premier League

D
D
W
W
W
W

Last game

Jan 24, 2026 5.15pm

Colwyn Bay 2 - 2 Connah's Quay

Goals scored

61

Top scorer

Harry Franklin

Caernarfon Town

All competitions

D
D
W
L
D
L

Welsh Premier League

D
D
W
L
D
L

Last game

Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm

Pen-y-Bont 0 - 0 Caernarfon

Goals scored

56

Top scorer

Phil Mooney

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.

Result

Connah's Quay Nomads 49.09% ▼ (-0.04)

Draw 22.42% ▼ (-0.28)

Caernarfon Town 28.49% ▲ (+0.32)

Both Teams to Score:

59.54% ▼ (-0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.66% ▲ (+0.23)

Under 1.5 18.34% ▼ (-0.24)

Over 2.5 60.87% ▲ (+0.08)

Under 2.5 39.13% ▼ (-0.08)

Over 3.5 38.43% ▲ (+0.26)

Under 3.5 61.57% ▼ (-0.26)

Over 4.5 23.28% ▲ (+0.11)

Under 4.5 76.72% ▼ (-0.10)

First Half Winner

Connah's Quay Nomads 37.97% ▼ (-0.22)

Draw 37.68% ▼ (-0.62)

Caernarfon Town 24.35% ▲ (+0.84)

Team To Score First

Connah's Quay Nomads 57.52% ▼ (-0.03)

No Goal 4.66% ▼ (-0.19)

Caernarfon Town 37.82% ▲ (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 54.04% ▼ (-3.74)

Equal 8 11.88% ▲ (+0.37)

Under 8 34.08% ▲ (+3.37)

Over 9 42.28% ▼ (-3.76)

Equal 9 11.76% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 9 45.96% ▲ (+3.74)

Over 10.5 31.6% ▼ (-3.48)

Under 10.5 68.4% ▲ (+3.49)

Connah's Quay Nomads Goals

Over 1.5 51.61% ▼ (-0.15)

Under 1.5 48.39% ▲ (+0.15)

Over 2.5 26.22% ▼ (-0.09)

Under 2.5 73.78% ▲ (+0.10)

Over 3.5 11.25% ▲ (+0.02)

Under 3.5 88.75% ▼ (-0.02)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 65.16% ▲ (+0.32)

Under 0.5 34.84% ▼ (-0.32)

Over 1.5 33.85% ▲ (+0.29)

Under 1.5 66.15% ▼ (-0.29)

Over 2.5 13.72% ▲ (+0.17)

Under 2.5 86.28% ▼ (-0.16)

Over 3.5 4.44% ▼ (-0.05)

Under 3.5 95.56% ▲ (+0.05)

Score analysis

Connah's Quay Nomads 49.09%

Draw 22.41%

Caernarfon Town 28.48%

Connah's Quay Nomads

2-1 @ 9.65% ▲ (+0.06)

1-0 @ 7.94% ▼ (-0.01)

2-0 @ 6.82% ▼ (-0.06)

3-1 @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.05)

3-0 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.13)

3-2 @ 3.47% ▲ (+0.10)

Other @ 11.12% ▲ (+0.05)

Total : 49.09%

Draw

1-1 @ 10.13% ▲ (+0.07)

2-2 @ 6.08% ▼ (-0.09)

0-0 @ 4.66% ▼ (-0.19)

3-3 @ 1.41% ▼ (-0.05)

Other @ 0.13% ▼ (-0.03)

Total : 22.41%

Caernarfon Town

1-2 @ 6.72% ▼ (-0.05)

0-1 @ 5.72% ▼ (-0.05)

0-2 @ 3.86% ▲ (+0.17)

1-3 @ 3.24% ▲ (+0.29)

2-3 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.05)

0-3 @ 1.79% ▼ (-0.09)

Other @ 4.31% ▼ (-0.03)

Total : 28.48%

Head to Head

Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm

2

2

HT : 1 1

FT The Oval

Phil Mooney 25'
Rio Owen 58'
Rio Owen 59'
Connor Salisbury 75'
Phil Mooney 80'
Phil Mooney 81'

Callum Bratley 2'
James Jones 28'
James Jones 29'
Rhys Hughes 59'
Max Woodcock 85'
Freddie Redshaw 85'

Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm

1

2

HT : 0 0

FT

Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm

1

1

HT : 1 0

FT Deeside College Stadium

Rhys Hughes 34'
Chris Marriott 69'
Ben Nash 71'
Noah Edwards 82'

Paulo Mendes 15'
Adam Davies 61'
Ryan Sears 65'
Phil Mooney 83'
Phil Mooney 88'

Sep 28, 2024 5.15pm

3

1

HT : 2 0

FT The Oval

Paulo Mendes 18'
Darren Thomas 28'
Darren Thomas 45'+1'
Zack Clarke 56'
Ryan Sears 85'
Joe Faux 90'+7'

Chris Marriott 38'
John Disney 83'

Mar 15, 2024 7.45pm

2

1

HT : 0 0

FT The Oval

Dion Donohue 15'
Louis Lloyd 53'
Marc Williams 58'
Marc Williams 90'+4'

Dan Roberts 65'
Jordan Davies 90'+6'

Feb 2, 2024 7.45pm

1

1

HT : 0 1

FT Deeside College Stadium

Michael Wilde 59'
Callum Bratley 70'
Ryan Harrington 75'
Callum Morris 90'+4'

Adam Davies 22'
Marc Williams 89'

Form Data

Colwyn Bay 2 - 2 Connah's Quay

Caernarfon 2 - 2 Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay 3 - 1 Barry

Connah's Quay 3 - 1 New Saints

Flint Town 0 - 2 Connah's Quay

Connah's Quay 4 - 2 Briton Ferry

Pen-y-Bont 0 - 0 Caernarfon

Caernarfon 2 - 2 Connah's Quay

Bala Town 0 - 1 Caernarfon

Caernarfon 1 - 2 Colwyn Bay

Caernarfon 1 - 1 Flint Town

New Saints 2 - 0 Caernarfon