Welsh Premier League
Connah's Quay
Feb 6, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Deeside College Stadium
Caernarfon
  • Rhys Hughes 43' yellowcard
  • Rhys Hughes 44' yellowcard
  • Callum Bratley 81' yellowcard
  • Jason Oswell 86' yellowcard
  • Jason Oswell 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matthew Jones 69'
  • yellowcard Zack Clarke 69'
  • yellowcard Mathew Jones 69'
  • yellowcard 87'
  • yellowcard Adam Davies 87'
  • yellowcard Rio Lloyd Owen 87'
  • yellowcard S. Bradley 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Sion Bradley 90'+2'

Connah's Quay Nomads vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 5.15pm
Colwyn Bay 2 - 2 Connah's Quay
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Harry Franklin

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm
Pen-y-Bont 0 - 0 Caernarfon
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Phil Mooney

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.

Result

Connah's Quay Nomads 49.09% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 22.42% ▼ (-0.28)
Caernarfon Town 28.49% ▲ (+0.32)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.54% ▼ (-0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.66% ▲ (+0.23)
Under 1.5 18.34% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 2.5 60.87% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 2.5 39.13% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 38.43% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 3.5 61.57% ▼ (-0.26)
Over 4.5 23.28% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 4.5 76.72% ▼ (-0.10)

First Half Winner

Connah's Quay Nomads 37.97% ▼ (-0.22)
Draw 37.68% ▼ (-0.62)
Caernarfon Town 24.35% ▲ (+0.84)

Team To Score First

Connah's Quay Nomads 57.52% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 4.66% ▼ (-0.19)
Caernarfon Town 37.82% ▲ (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 54.04% ▼ (-3.74)
Equal 8 11.88% ▲ (+0.37)
Under 8 34.08% ▲ (+3.37)
Over 9 42.28% ▼ (-3.76)
Equal 9 11.76% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 9 45.96% ▲ (+3.74)
Over 10.5 31.6% ▼ (-3.48)
Under 10.5 68.4% ▲ (+3.49)

Connah's Quay Nomads Goals

Over 1.5 51.61% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 1.5 48.39% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 2.5 26.22% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 2.5 73.78% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 11.25% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 88.75% ▼ (-0.02)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 65.16% ▲ (+0.32)
Under 0.5 34.84% ▼ (-0.32)
Over 1.5 33.85% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 1.5 66.15% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 13.72% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 2.5 86.28% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 3.5 4.44% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 95.56% ▲ (+0.05)

Score analysis

Connah's Quay Nomads 49.09%
Draw 22.41%
Caernarfon Town 28.48%
Connah's Quay Nomads
2-1 @ 9.65% ▲ (+0.06)
1-0 @ 7.94% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.82% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.13)
3-2 @ 3.47% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 11.12% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 49.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.13% ▲ (+0.07)
2-2 @ 6.08% ▼ (-0.09)
0-0 @ 4.66% ▼ (-0.19)
3-3 @ 1.41% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 0.13% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 22.41%
Caernarfon Town
1-2 @ 6.72% ▼ (-0.05)
0-1 @ 5.72% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 3.86% ▲ (+0.17)
1-3 @ 3.24% ▲ (+0.29)
2-3 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 1.79% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 4.31% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 28.48%

Head to Head

Welsh Premier League Gameweek 22
Caernarfon
Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT The Oval
Connah's Quay
  • Phil Mooney 25' goal
  • Rio Owen 58' yellowcard
  • Rio Owen 59' yellowcard
  • Connor Salisbury 75' yellowcard
  • Phil Mooney 80' goal
  • Phil Mooney 81' goal
  • goal Callum Bratley 2'
  • yellowcard James Jones 28'
  • yellowcard James Jones 29'
  • goal Rhys Hughes 59'
  • yellowcard Max Woodcock 85'
  • yellowcard Freddie Redshaw 85'
Welsh Premier League
Connah's Quay
Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Caernarfon
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 18
Connah's Quay
Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Deeside College Stadium
Caernarfon
  • Rhys Hughes 34' goal
  • Chris Marriott 69' yellowcard
  • Ben Nash 71' yellowcard
  • Noah Edwards 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paulo Mendes 15'
  • goal Adam Davies 61'
  • yellowcard Ryan Sears 65'
  • yellowcard Phil Mooney 83'
  • redcard Phil Mooney 88'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 10
Caernarfon
Sep 28, 2024 5.15pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT The Oval
Connah's Quay
  • Paulo Mendes 18' goal
  • Darren Thomas 28' yellowcard
  • Darren Thomas 45'+1' goal
  • Zack Clarke 56' goal
  • Ryan Sears 85' yellowcard
  • Joe Faux 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Chris Marriott 38'
  • goal John Disney 83'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 6
Caernarfon
Mar 15, 2024 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT The Oval
Connah's Quay
  • Dion Donohue 15' yellowcard
  • Louis Lloyd 53' goal
  • Marc Williams 58' goal
  • Marc Williams 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Dan Roberts 65'
  • goal Jordan Davies 90'+6'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 1
Connah's Quay
Feb 2, 2024 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Deeside College Stadium
Caernarfon
  • Michael Wilde 59' redcard
  • Callum Bratley 70' yellowcard
  • Ryan Harrington 75' goal
  • Callum Morris 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Adam Davies 22'
  • yellowcard Marc Williams 89'

Form Data

Colwyn Bay 2 - 2 Connah's Quay
Caernarfon 2 - 2 Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay 3 - 1 Barry
Connah's Quay 3 - 1 New Saints
Flint Town 0 - 2 Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay 4 - 2 Briton Ferry
Pen-y-Bont 0 - 0 Caernarfon
Caernarfon 2 - 2 Connah's Quay
Bala Town 0 - 1 Caernarfon
Caernarfon 1 - 2 Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon 1 - 1 Flint Town
New Saints 2 - 0 Caernarfon