Welsh Premier League
Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm
The KYMCO Stadium

Pen-y-Bont vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pen-y-Bont

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm
Pen-y-Bont 1 - 1 Cardiff MU
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
James Crole

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Jan 13, 2026 7.45pm
Caernarfon 2 - 2 Connah's Quay
Goals scored
44
Top scorer
Phil Mooney

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 48.91%. A win for Caernarfon Town has a probability of 26.35% and a draw has a probability of 24.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win is 0-1 (7.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.47%).

Result

Pen-y-Bont 48.91%
Draw 24.74%
Caernarfon Town 26.35%

Both Teams to Score: 

51.23%

Goals

Over 1.5 73.58%
Under 1.5 26.42%
Over 2.5 49.82%
Under 2.5 50.18%
Over 3.5 28.28%
Under 3.5 71.72%
Over 4.5 16%
Under 4.5 84%

First Half Winner

Pen-y-Bont 37.46%
Draw 40.16%
Caernarfon Town 22.38%

Team To Score First

Pen-y-Bont 55.85%
No Goal 7.42%
Caernarfon Town 36.73%

Corners

Over 8 50.13%
Equal 8 12.19%
Under 8 37.68%
Over 9 38.45%
Equal 9 11.68%
Under 9 49.87%
Over 10.5 28.18%
Under 10.5 71.82%

Pen-y-Bont Goals

Over 1.5 45.63%
Under 1.5 54.37%
Over 2.5 20.98%
Under 2.5 79.02%
Over 3.5 7.9%
Under 3.5 92.1%

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 60.75%
Under 0.5 39.25%
Over 1.5 27.01%
Under 1.5 72.99%
Over 2.5 9.17%
Under 2.5 90.83%
Over 3.5 2.69%
Under 3.5 97.31%

Score analysis

Pen-y-Bont 48.9%
Draw 24.74%
Caernarfon Town 26.36%
Pen-y-Bont
1-0 @ 11.03%
2-1 @ 9.39%
2-0 @ 8.33%
3-1 @ 4.91%
3-0 @ 4.62%
3-2 @ 2.77%
Other @ 7.85%
Total : 48.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.47%
0-0 @ 7.42%
2-2 @ 5.02%
Other @ 0.05%
Total : 24.74%
Caernarfon Town
0-1 @ 7.97%
1-2 @ 6.08%
0-2 @ 3.97%
1-3 @ 2.35%
2-3 @ 1.91%
0-3 @ 1.44%
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 26.36%

Head to Head

Welsh Premier League
Oct 25, 2025 2.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Welsh Premier League
Sep 20, 2025 5.15pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 9
Apr 13, 2025 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Bryntirion Park
  • James Crole 9' goal
  • Clayton Green 75' goal
  • James Crole 90'+2' goal
  • goal Louis Lloyd 20'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 4
Feb 22, 2025 2.30pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT The Oval
  • Adam Davies 7' goal
  • Adam Davies 51' goal
  • Blaine Hudson 72' goal
  • yellowcard Kane Owen 30'
  • goal James Crole 57'
  • goal James Crole 63'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 15
Nov 2, 2024 2.30pm
1
5
HT : 0 2
FT The Oval
  • Gruff John Williams 21' yellowcard
  • Paulo Mendes 68' goal
  • Morgan Owen 74' yellowcard
  • goal Chris Venables 22'
  • goal Nathan Wood 45'+1'
  • goal Nathan Wood 65'
  • goal Gabe Kircough 72'
  • goal James Crole 82'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 6
Sep 7, 2024 2.30pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Bryntirion Park
  • Keyon Reffell 40' goal
  • Adam Przybek 85' yellowcard
  • Clayton Green 87' goal
  • yellowcard Sam Downey 53'