Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 37%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 36.68% and a draw had a probability of 26.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.29%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 1-0 (9.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.