Welsh Premier League
Feb 14, 2026 12.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Brewery Field
  • Owain Warlow 60' yellowcard
  • Alexander Cvetkovic 75' yellowcard
  • Noah Daley 75' yellowcard
  • Ioan Phillips 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Callum Bratley 56'
  • yellowcard Jack Kenny 69'
  • yellowcard Zeli Ismail 83'

Pen-y-Bont vs Connah's Quay Nomads - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pen-y-Bont

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 12.30pm
New Saints 6 - 0 Pen-y-Bont
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Ioan Phillips

Connah's Quay Nomads

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Feb 6, 2026 7.45pm
Connah's Quay 1 - 1 Caernarfon
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Harry Franklin

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 (8.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result

Pen-y-Bont 27.7% (-0.02)
Draw 27.5% (+0.02)
Connah's Quay Nomads 44.8% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

46.61% (+0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.86% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 32.14% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 43.88%
Under 2.5 56.12%
Over 3.5 22.62% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 77.38% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 12.19% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 87.81% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Pen-y-Bont 22.96% (+0.02)
Draw 41.24% (-0.02)
Connah's Quay Nomads 35.8% (+0.01)

Team To Score First

Pen-y-Bont 36.41% (+0.01)
No Goal 10.64% (+0.01)
Connah's Quay Nomads 52.95% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 46.12%
Equal 8 12.02%
Under 8 41.86%
Over 9 34.94%
Equal 9 11.18%
Under 9 53.88%
Over 10.5 25.36% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 74.64% (+0.02)

Pen-y-Bont Goals

Over 1.5 26.32% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 73.68% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 8.46% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 91.54% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.38%
Under 3.5 97.62%

Connah's Quay Nomads Goals

Over 0.5 72.2% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 27.8% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 38.41% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 61.59% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 15.98% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 84.02% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 5.51%
Under 3.5 94.49%

Score analysis

Pen-y-Bont 27.7%
Draw 27.5%
Connah's Quay Nomads 44.81%
Pen-y-Bont
1-0 @ 8.62%
2-1 @ 6.93% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 4.4% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 2.12%
3-0 @ 1.83% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.48%
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 27.7%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.85% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 10.64% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.3% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.06%
Total : 27.5%
Connah's Quay Nomads
0-1 @ 12.89% (+0.03)
1-2 @ 8.91% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 7.74% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 4.01% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.58%
2-3 @ 2.23% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.45%
Total : 44.81%

Head to Head

Welsh Premier League
Nov 8, 2025 2.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Welsh Premier League
Aug 30, 2025 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 19
Jan 4, 2025 2.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bryntirion Park
  • Keyon Reffell 54' goal
  • Mark Little 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard John Disney 90'+1'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 7
Sep 15, 2024 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT University Stadium
  • Jack Kenny 40' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lewis Harling 41'
  • yellowcard Billy Borge 50'
  • yellowcard Billy Borge 69'
  • goal Gabe Kircough 78'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 22
Jan 13, 2024 5.15pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT The KYMCO Stadium
  • Shaun MacDonald 7' yellowcard
  • Eliot Richards 54' yellowcard
  • Lewis Harling 70' yellowcard
  • Mael Davies 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kai Edwards 12'
  • yellowcard Harry Franklin 56'
  • goal Michael Wilde 87'
  • yellowcard Declan Poole 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Ryan Stratulis 90'+4'
  • redcard Declan Poole 90'+5'
Welsh Premier League Gameweek 10
Sep 30, 2023 5.15pm
4
2
HT : 3 0
FT Deeside College Stadium
  • Jordan Davies 11' goal
  • Jordan Davies 11' goal
  • Jack Kenny 24' goal
  • Jordan Davies 36' yellowcard
  • Jordan Davies 58' goal
  • Jack Kenny 65' yellowcard
  • Ryan Harrington 90' goal
  • John Disney 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mark Little 22'
  • yellowcard Ashley Evans 65'
  • yellowcard Gabe Kircough 68'
  • goal Chris Venables 70'
  • goal Daniel Jefferies 81'
  • yellowcard Kane Owen 90'+1'